INDIAN TELECOMS:INCUMBENTS CONTINUE TO GAIN SUBS AT EXPENSE OF TAIL

时间:2018年01月12日 15:00:43 中财网
Based on regulator’s data, India’s active mobile subscriber base stood at1,005m for the month of Nov/17, a m-o-m fall of 19m. The reportedsubscriber base stands at 1,162m (vs 1,178m in Oct)。

The big fall has been triggered by Reliance Communications which lost30m subs partly due to closure of 2G operations in several markets.
Reported subscriber base has now fallen for 5 straight months (sinceJuly/17) and active subscriber base has fallen for 3 out 5 months. India’smobile base broadly stands at Jan/17 levels for both reported and activesubscribers.
The larger players saw additions to active subscriber base - Bharti (7.6m),Vodafone (4.1m), Idea (2.6m), Jio (3.7m)。

Subscriber data would remain volatile and we are cautious to drawinvestment conclusions on monthly data. However on a trend-line basis,the three incumbents (Bharti, Vodafone and Idea) have reported improvedsubscriber additions for the past three months.
We would watch for broadband subscriber additions and data usage levelsfor the incumbents to assess the competitive position relative to Jio in the4G space.
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