[买入评级]CITS(601888):TOP PICK AND OUR CONVICTION BUY

时间:2017年11月15日 11:00:39 中财网


Consensus may not fully capture company's growth, short term and long term
We raise our target price for CITS by 37.5% to RMB55, from RMB40.Management has publicly guided that its duty-free business is likely to seegrowth of over 60% yoy for FY2017. Also, we believe consensus hasn’tfactored in profit from Beijing Airport, the potential opening of a downtownduty-free store and the consolidation of duty-free in Shanghai Airport. Given itsrobust and sustainable growth, high barriers to entry and attractive valuation,CITS has become our conviction Buy for 2018.
Profit from BCIA should be higher than the consensus estimate
We expect RMB6.6bn duty-free sales from BCIA (T2 & T3) in 2018. We believethe market is overly concerned with the high concessionaire rate from BeijingAirport: 1) during the transitional 12m, CITS will pay the original concessionairerate agreed with Sunrise, and 2) there is still room for GM improvement, giventhe size-up (CITS’ duty-free GP margin was only c.45% vs. Dufry’s 60% in2016)。 We estimate RMB623m profit contribution for 2017 and RMB349m for2018. We believe this has not been factored into WIND/Bloomberg consensus.
Haitang Bay’s robust growth may continue all the way to 2020
We have grown more confident on Haitang Bay duty-free sales after our recentchannel checks. We expect duty-free sales to hit RMB6.55bn in 2017, yoygrowth of 43%, and to grow another 28% in 2018. Our channel check foundthat there are two new additions of luxury hotel resorts (new supply of 800-1,000 rooms) in Haitang Bay every year to meet the strong demand fromdomestic travelers. We also believe Atlantis and Haichang Ocean Park, two inprogresstheme parks could add another 5-6m travelers to Haitang Bay. Allthese incremental travelers should benefit duty-free sales’ long-term growth.
Two more significant catalysts may double current profit – not priced in yet
We believe the current share price hasn’t fully factored in two near-mid-termcatalysts: a downtown duty-free store and consolidation of duty-free businessin Shanghai Pudong/Hongqiao Airports. These two events are likely to bring afurther c.RMB1.2bn in earnings to CITS, which is 35% on top of our 2018E.
Valuation and risks
Our TP of RMB55 implies a forward PER of 24x on our 2018 earningsforecasts, which we believe is very attractive, given that the duty-free businessis protected and enjoys barriers to entry in China. We derive our TP based onDCF (8.1% WACC, 9% cost of equity, beta of 0.9 and 3.0% TGR, unchanged)。Key downside risks include 1) unfavorable government policy, 2) ecommercecompetition, 3) delays in lifting shopping quota, and 4) competition from OTAs.
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